D ECONOMY: ECONOMIC INDICATORS (August 2016)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES


Source: Texas Workforce Commission; Preliminary values, not seasonally adjusted.
*Largest U.S. Cities excluding Dallas are: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, San Jose, and Austin.

CITY OF DALLAS LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT (PERSONS)


Source: Texas Workforce Commission; Preliminary values, not seasonally adjusted.

CITY OF DALLAS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE


Source: Texas Workforce Commission; Preliminary values, not seasonally adjusted.

        • The preliminary unemployment rate as reported by the Texas Workforce Commission for the City of Dallas for July 2016 increased to 4.2 percent. The rate reflects a 5,129 person increase in the size of the city’s labor force.
        • July was the 17th consecutive month that the reported unemployment rate within the City of Dallas has outperformed the state’s unemployment rate.
        • The reported increases in the city’s labor force and unemployment rate during the month of July are likely due to seasonal factors including recent graduates seeking employment.

CITY OF DALLAS HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT


Source: Texas Workforce Commission; Preliminary values not seasonally adjusted.

              • The preliminary July 2016 count of employed Dallas residents as reported by the Texas Workforce Commission increased to 643,489 (0.51 percent).
              • The reported total was a 3,246-worker increase from the previous month’s revised household employment level of 640,243.

DALLAS-FORT WORTH MSA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2016; Preliminary values not seasonally adjusted.

                      • The Consumer Price Index is a weighted average price index for consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a consumer price index for the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA bi-monthly. Percentage change from the previously published index value is a representation of inflation over the past two-month period.
                      • The Dallas-Fort Worth consumer price index remained relatively unchanged, posting a slight increase of 0.36 percent from May to July 2016. Over the same time period the U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.17 percent.
                      • The Dallas-Fort Worth core index (price growth less food and energy) increased by 0.14 percent over the two-month period, while the U.S core index increased by 0.09 percent.
                      • In general, inflation remains muted due to a combination of continued wage stagnation, low oil prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.

THE CONFERENCE BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX®

Source: The Conference Board, June 2016; Preliminary values, not seasonally adjusted.

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® is designed to measure the overall confidence of the average consumer with respect to their personal finances. The Index combines consumer sentiment on the current state of the economy and consumer expectations regarding the near future into one composite index.
  • While consumer sentiment with regard to the current state of the economy showed modest gains though 2015, recent declines in oil and gas industry activity and weakening exports are reflected in the current lowering of consumer expectations.

FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q2 2016

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Quarterly House Price All-Transactions Index, 100 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 2016; Dallas Office of Economic Development, 2016. Values not seasonally adjusted.

  • The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index is calculated using home sales price information gathered from mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices in the Dallas-Plano-Irving Metropolitan Division increased 3.33 percent during the second quarter of 2016. Over the same time period home prices for the entire U.S. rose 1.9 percent.

MEDIAN SALE PRICE OF EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES – Q2 2016


Source: NAR, August 2016. http://www.realtor.org/topics/metropolitan-median-area-prices-and-affordability/data

                        • The National Association of Realtors Quarterly Metropolitan Median Area Prices and Affordability Report provides a measure of the median selling prices for existing single-family homes and condos by metropolitan area.
                        • A majority of metropolitan areas in the United States experienced strong price growth during the first half of 2016, as a result of a decline in housing supply and an uptick in demand fueled by low interest rates and a stronger job market. Median sale prices in the US increased by 8.3% during the first half of 2016.
                        • Median sale prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area increased by 12.6% during the first half of 2016.

PAYCHEX | IHS SMALL BUSINESS JOBS INDEX BY MSA


Source:  Paychex Inc., August 2016. http://www.paychex.com/jobs-index/

                                              • The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index provides an up-to-date measurement of the change in small business employment over the last 12 months. An upward trend represented by an index value greater than 100 indicates a strengthening small business job market, while a downward trend represented by an index value less than 100 represents a slowdown in small business hiring. The data used for this index comes from a subset of Paychex clients and includes 350,000 small businesses with less than 50 employees in the U.S.
                                              • Dallas led all indexed metro areas in the nation by this measurement of small business job growth each month from October 2014 to April 2016.

C2ER COST OF LIVING INDEX – Q1 2016


Source:  Council for Community and Economic Research, 2016. http://www.coli.org/

                                              • The Council for Community and Economic Research publishes a quarterly Cost of Living Index to provide an accurate measure to compare cost of living differences among urban areas. Items on which the index is based have been chosen to reflect different categories of consumer expenditures.
                                              • Continued declines in oil and gas industry activity have led to a lower composite index cost of living score for Houston compared to Dallas for the first time since 2014.

ECONOMIC GROWTH WIDESPREAD ACROSS METROPOLITAN AREAS IN 2014

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, September 2015

                                                          • Real GDP increased in 282 of the nation’s 381 metropolitan areas in 2014.
                                                          • The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA ranked 4th in the nation in total real GDP, with a 2014 growth rate of 8.5%.
                                                          • Contributing most to the 8.5% GDP increase in the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA was the nondurable goods manufacturing sector, reporting a $15.4 billion increase over 2013 (+3.9%).